Mexican Elections

Sheinbaum a shoo-in, democracy in doubt

Thursday 30/05/24, 8pm

Mexico’s general election campaign, which comes to an end this weekend, has played out against a background of deadly violence against politicians, with complete impunity for the perpetrators. Despite the grave and worsening security situation, Claudia Sheinbaum, the incumbent’s chosen successor looks likely to win the presidential vote on June 2nd at a canter.

Since October 11th last year, 35 candidates for office in the 2024 Mexican general election have been assassinated – that’s one per week. The latest fatality, mayoral candidate José Alfredo Cabrera, was shot several times at point-blank range yesterday evening. Some claim that there may have been over 48 assassinations of political hopefuls. Other participants in the political process, including journalists, judges, ex-politicians, party functionaries and activists, have also been targeted by election-related violence. Numbers vary, but one report suggests that 143 people have been killed in political violence since the start of the electoral cycle. Meanwhile, by April 30th, 234 candidates had reported threats of violence against themselves or their families; it is believed the true number could be much higher. The victims are not all from one political party or persuasion, but represent the full spectrum of political parties in Mexico. It is important to realise that this political violence is not ideologically motivated, but is perpetrated by drug trafficking organisations seeking to gain or defend networks of corruption that allow them to operate. The violence is also a form of terrorism that discourages the people from political participation. Analysis from the last election suggested that each attack on a politician equates to a 3% reduction in the voter turnout in that municipality.

Perhaps surprisingly, this bloodshed is having little impact on the poll-lead of continuity candidate for the presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum. At the moment, some polls have the candidate for MORENA 30 points ahead of her closest rival Xóchitl Gálvez.

Aggregated polling from each month since July last year show Sheinbaum’s lead never dropping below 21%

One reason why it might not be significantly damaging the popularity of the MORENA party is the economy, stupid. Latin America’s second largest economy has enjoyed stronger-than-forecast economic growth for three consecutive years since the end of the pandemic. Mexico is benefitting from the USA’s trade war with China, as the US moves to “nearshore” supply chains, becoming the largest trading partner with the US economy for the first time this year. Consequently, unemployment is at an all-time low. AMLO’s austerity policies have helped keep the countries debt-GDP rate relatively low and keep foreign investment coming in. Last week, it was announced the Mexican economy would grow by at least 3.5% this year. Yet, spiralling violence might be enough to ruin the optimism of both Mexican workers and foreign capitalists.

Except that, Mexicans have seen this all before, even if the number of attacks is significantly higher. Since the transition to democratic elections in 2000, election years in Mexico have been characterised by spikes in the levels of violent crime. 389 acts of violence were officially recorded at the last presidential election in 2018. As many groups had predicted, this election has become the bloodiest yet, with 560 acts of violence recorded so far. Despite claims from president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, that perpetrators will be found and brought to justice, so far the killers have enjoyed total impunity. This is very much in keeping with the state of law enforcement in Mexico, where there are around 30,000 homicides each year and less than 3% of these ever lead to charges being brought. It is believed that around 1% of crimes committed in Mexico in 2021 have been resolved by the justice system. Mexicans are fed up with the situation, but most don’t view it is a new problem or see it as AMLO’s fault.

Additionally, not everyone is affected. The murders and acts of intimidation and violence against politicians, their families and associates are not equally spread around the country. They are concentrated in several regions, such as Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacan, Morelos, Oaxaca and Sonora, where organised crime is particularly strong. The majority of the victims are not standing to represent constituents at the national level, but are candidates in municipal elections, although some national politicians have been killed. Indeed, the killings are mostly taking place in small towns with a population of less than 10,000 people. Over 260,000 Mexican troops are currently deployed within the country, so the major urban centres are relatively free from violence against politicians.

AMLO has tried to reassure voters that Sunday will be Mexico’s safest ever election day, owing to the deployment of over 260,000 troops and national guards

One way of understanding the violence is as a result of the transition to democracy. Organised crime is endemic and deeply rooted in Mexico. During 75 years of single-party rule, organised crime was given space to conduct business with the collusion of the regime. Under this clientelist system, powerful men and families gave patronage to security forces and organised crime groups in return for their support and cooperation. The same structures still exist, but now every three to six years, the agreements have to be remade, potentially with different or less amenable patrons, often leading to bloody conflict. The fracturing of organised criminal networks during the Calderon’s War on Drugs between 2006 and 2012 led to an increase in deadly competition between criminal groups. AMLO has more or less ended the “king pin” strategy that caused so much violence, but the criminal landscape remains in a state of flux.

Does the current regime have a case to answer?

Whilst the trend was established before Lopez Obrador and MORENA came to power, the government are clearly worried about the optics. AMLO has been keen to play down the violence and, in typical thin-skinned-populist style, has suggested that the numbers are being inflated to make him look bad. Last year, the head of the National Search Commission, which keeps a register of disappeared people in Mexico, resigned after reportedly being pressured by the government to reduce the number of officially missing persons. AMLO has made much of the fact that the national homicide rate decreased by around 5% from 2022 to 2023 to suggest that he is getting a grip on the security situation. This was a promising sign, though there are still around 30,000 murders per year nationwide. Given the predictability of the electoral violence, it has been embarrassing for the government to be seen to scramble for new security protocols as the situation unfolds. The latest violence suggests that the hands-off approach of AMLO’s government has emboldened criminal groups further.

Throughout the last 6 years, AMLO has promoted a slogan in reference to his security policy which suggests that what communities vulnerable to crime need is “hugs, not bullets” (abrazos, no balazos). As well as being a reference to the enormous loss of civilian life incurred when Felipe Calderon launched his full-scale War on Drugs in 2006, this is an argument to invest in communities and young people so that they might be more resilient and resistant to the temptations of organised crime. He has invested in education and training for young people without employment. It sounds like a good idea, but it isn’t a quick fix and it isn’t clear that AMLO’s pockets are as deep as the cartels’. Furthermore, while a lack of education opportunities and dire poverty obviously make individuals and communities vulnerable to recruitment and abuse by organised crime, at the root of the problem, is the condition of impunity. Without a functioning justice system, any group with an interest in the outcome of the political process knows that violence or intimidation is an option with few likely costs. There is a bit of a chicken and egg situation here. Mexico needs to raise the integrity of its law enforcement and prosecutors in order to investigate and punish violent crime. To do this, you need politicians, police and judges who feel themselves safe, who can’t be bought, threatened or bumped off.

Mexican politicians are rather fond of putting the responsibility for their security crisis at the door of drug consumers in the USA, but the cartels are complex and entrenched multinational organisations with diverse streams of revenue. As the complicated transition to democracy in Mexico continues to show, removing one overarching condition of a political system is not the same thing as removing the political and economic arrangements that have developed underneath that condition. Claudia Sheinbaum has surfed to the doors of the Palacio Nacional on the wave of AMLO’s popularity; soon she will be asked to turn back the tide of violence threatening to sweep away Mexico’s democratic institutions.